Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:33:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x884a…aa34 world 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,237 (+16%) realized +$1,402 · open −$165
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate26%37W / 107L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$704
7 days+$771
14 days+$1,295
30 days+$1,240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$982
other 10% −$337
crypto 8% +$456
politics 8% +$75
weather 2% −$101
finance 1% −$6
sports 1% −$2
economics 1% −$8
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +22.0% +10.4% 44% 44% +30.1%
≤30d 75 +9.8% -0.6% 32% 29% +8.8%
≤90d 144 -4.8% -13.9% 26% 22% +5.0%
all 144 -4.8% -13.9% 26% 22% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 22% +5.0%
10% -22.1% 18% -5.0%
15% -29.6% 16% -14.2%
20% -36.5% 14% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$14 · ×5.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized+$1,402
Unrealized−$165
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses37 / 107
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)144 / 152
History coverage69d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $54 $49 −$5 (-9%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Yes 26¢ 6¢ $179 $45 −$133 (-75%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $52 $39 −$12 (-24%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-41%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 28¢ 25¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $80 +$325 +406%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $195 +$98 +50%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $100 −$18 -18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $145 +$268 +185%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $338 +$112 +33%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $423 −$13 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $62 +$57 +92%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $100 +$44 +44%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $100 −$22 -22%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $39 −$18 -47%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $50 +$37 +75%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $45 −$19 -42%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $159 +$100 +63%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $100 −$18 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1,069 +$116 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $110 −$89 -81%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $58 −$6 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $189 +$72 +38%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 07 $101 −$23 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$9 +530%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $100 −$68 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $27 +$52 +189%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $102 +$177 +173%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $64 −$17 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 3? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $129 +$258 +200%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 03 $10 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 2? Jun 03 $12 −$12 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $158 −$158 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $7 −$3 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 31 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 30? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $436 −$96 -22%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 29? May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 31m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $29 31m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 31m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $18 45m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $54 50m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 56m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 56m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 57m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $27 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $85 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $35 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $145 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $25 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $260 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 19h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 21h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 21h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $293 21h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $195 23h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 23h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $82 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $100 40h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 82¢ $413 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.12 · official $176.12 (match) · 749 history records