Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:52:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
88 0x8845…e68c other 104 markets active 4h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+0%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$339per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$31
politics 18% −$7
economics 8% −$2
sports 4% +$75
culture 3% −$2
world 2% −$1
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 102 +7.1% -3.1% 12% 10% -9.4%
all 102 +7.1% -3.1% 12% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 10% -9.4%
10% -12.3% 10% -18.1%
15% -20.8% 10% -26.0%
20% -28.6% 9% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×11.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 104
History coverage86d
Avg bet$339
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $135 $136 +$0 (+0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $133 $133 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $363 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $65 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $65 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $46 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $392 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 02 $88 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 30 $58 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $78 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $391 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $303 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $354 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $328 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 14 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $1,028 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $326 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $357 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 09 $325 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $319 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $688 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $351 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $351 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 28 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $322 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $363 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $364 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $332 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $360 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $360 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,311 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $971 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $704 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 13 $358 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $898 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $363 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $401 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $329 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 4h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 8h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $133 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $65 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $65 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $65 10d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 12d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 12d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 13d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 14d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 16d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 16d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 17d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $78 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $78 17d
Will Solana reach $130 in May? BUY No 100¢ $88 20d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 23d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 23d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $45 24d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $45 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $135 24d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.18 · official $268.18 (match) · 311 history records