Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8845…59c2 world 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 327d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$3 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%18W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$2
other 24% +$1
economics 18% $0
politics 14% $0
tech 6% $0
culture 6% −$6
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.5% -5.5% 40% 20% -9.3%
≤30d 12 +3.8% -6.1% 50% 17% -9.5%
≤90d 12 +3.8% -6.1% 50% 17% -9.5%
all 45 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 4% -9.9%
10% -17.5% 2% -18.6%
15% -25.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

327d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses18 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage327d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 66¢ $45 $43 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $53 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $77 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 11 $47 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $45 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $96 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $3 +$1 +26%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $58 +$1 +1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 17 $64 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 02 $63 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 01 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $6 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jul 30 $13 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 29 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 28 $6 $0 +0%
"Happy Gilmore 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50–59? Jul 28 $6 $0 +3%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 28 $57 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? Jul 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 27 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be l Jul 27 $64 −$6 -10%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 27 $139 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $70 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $45 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 39h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $2 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $40 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $8 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $48 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $7 5d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $47 6d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $47 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $13 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $30 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $6 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $21 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $18 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $10 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $10 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 66¢ $27 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 66¢ $18 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 65¢ $13 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 65¢ $8 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 65¢ $23 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $44 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.23 · official $46.23 (match) · 138 history records