Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:56:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

88
0x8842…dfa7
weather · 1422 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$1,106 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,313 · open −$23
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$196
Realized+$2,313
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses436 / 732
Open positions57
Markets (closed)1168 / 1422
History coverage52d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day53.6
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 57 History 1168 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$141
7 days+$445
14 days+$1,416
30 days+$1,715
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Yes 38¢ 48¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Yes 38¢ 44¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? Yes 65¢ 100¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Yes 79¢ 100¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Yes 43¢ 64¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 29¢ 31¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Yes 43¢ 41¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Yes 36¢ 30¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? No 92¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? No 88¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Yes 36¢ 46¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? No 77¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? No 89¢ 79¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Yes 21¢ 43¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+105%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Yes 39¢ 43¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Yes 34¢ 54¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+59%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? Yes 26¢ 18¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$17 +161%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$6 +186%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$10 +126%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$2 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $8 +$7 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? Jun 13 $8 +$16 +207%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $18 +$23 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$5 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $4 +$8 +212%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$39 +540%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$2,290
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 10m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $11 18m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 18m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 79¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 202 +19.8% +8.4% 59% 51% +17.4%
≤30d 541 +25.3% +13.4% 48% 45% +21.7%
≤90d 1168 +14.3% +3.4% 37% 36% +11.2%
all 1168 +14.3% +3.4% 37% 36% +11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover53.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.4% 36% +11.2%
10% ← realistic here -6.5% 34% +0.5%
15% -15.5% 31% -9.2%
20% -23.8% 30% -18.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.51 · official $195.52 (match) · 3500 history records