Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:38:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
88 0x8841…0b46 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+7%) realized +$26 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -8.9% -17.6% 67% 50% -0.4%
≤30d 6 -8.9% -17.6% 67% 50% -0.4%
≤90d 6 -8.9% -17.6% 67% 50% -0.4%
all 6 -8.9% -17.6% 67% 50% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 50% -0.4%
10% -25.4% 33% -10.0%
15% -32.7% 33% -18.7%
20% -39.3% 0% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage50d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $129 $130 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $119 +$11 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $81 +$37 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 +$2 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +46%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $23 −$16 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $130 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $119 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $81 19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $12 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $11 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 6d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 6d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 6¢ $18 44d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 44d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 50d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.90 · official $129.92 (match) · 15 history records