Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:20:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x883d…d2e8 other 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$394 (+24%) realized +$631 · open −$237
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%7W / 15L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days+$286
14 days+$505
30 days+$395
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$457
sports 26% +$617
crypto 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -20.3% -27.8% 32% 26% +21.3%
≤30d 22 -19.1% -26.8% 32% 27% +23.5%
≤90d 22 -19.1% -26.8% 32% 27% +23.5%
all 22 -19.1% -26.8% 32% 27% +23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 27% +23.5%
10% -33.8% 27% +11.7%
15% -40.2% 27% +0.9%
20% -46.0% 23% -9.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +36% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$30 · ×4.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$283
Realized+$631
Unrealized−$237
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses7 / 15
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions12
Markets (closed)22 / 34
History coverage15d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $100 $69 −$31 (-31%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$9 +91%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $31 +$80 +259%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $52 +$127 +246%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $103 +$281 +273%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $16 −$15 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $306 +$123 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $132 +$219 +165%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Eu Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 23m
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $52 23m
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $52 23m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $52 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 9h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $52 10h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 10h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $52 11h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 47h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 47h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 47h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $31 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $52 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $52 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $104 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $102 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.90 · official $285.01 (match) · 44 history records