Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:48:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
88 0x883c…41a7 sports 201 markets active 2d ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$95 (-3%) realized −$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate71%142W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$67
other 18% −$65
crypto 6% +$26
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -6.4% -15.3% 74% 67% -2.4%
≤30d 55 -6.9% -15.7% 67% 62% -2.5%
≤90d 71 -2.2% -11.5% 69% 63% +1.2%
all 201 -5.4% -14.4% 71% 54% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 54% -12.6%
10% -22.6% 30% -21.0%
15% -30.1% 17% -28.6%
20% -36.9% 8% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses142 / 59
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)201 / 201
History coverage145d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 201 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 30 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 30 $5 +$2 +38%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier May 30 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$4 -73%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$2 -50%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $8 +$1 +13%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $5 +$2 +38%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $2 +$1 +62%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $2 +$1 +60%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 26 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 26 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 26 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -95%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $5 +$2 +34%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 25 $5 +$1 +17%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 +$1 +20%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $7 −$5 -78%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$1 -57%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 −$1 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $6 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $12 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $6 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $11 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $11 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $7 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $7 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $6 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 474 history records