Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:46:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8839…ddb5 weather 181 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$1,351 (+4%) realized +$571 · open +$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate71%125W / 52L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day83.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$564now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$514
14 days−$348
30 days−$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$659
crypto 0% −$15
other 0% −$8
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -2.7% -12.0% 61% 35% -16.3%
≤30d 137 -3.7% -12.8% 66% 34% -10.5%
≤90d 177 +0.7% -8.9% 71% 40% -8.0%
all 177 +0.7% -8.9% 71% 40% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 40% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 15% -16.8%
15% -25.6% 3% -24.8%
20% -32.9% 1% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$53 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$564
Realized+$571
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses125 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)177 / 181
History coverage41d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day83.4
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? No 85¢ 98¢ $244 $282 +$37 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? No 77¢ 93¢ $160 $193 +$33 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? No 63¢ 57¢ $76 $70 −$6 (-8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $62 +$7 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $59 −$50 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $146 +$50 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $259 +$29 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $69 −$17 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $113 +$17 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $418 −$103 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $311 +$15 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $119 −$15 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 −$9 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $816 −$276 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $461 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $102 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $91 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $124 +$14 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $188 +$84 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $285 −$58 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $55 −$21 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $239 +$52 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $78 +$14 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $180 +$41 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $437 +$22 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $551 −$317 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $344 −$32 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $145 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $63 −$12 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $387 −$72 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $215 +$35 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $262 +$47 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $184 +$16 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $111 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $675 +$26 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $260 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $516 +$60 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $140 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $372 −$30 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $634 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $90 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $104 +$22 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $227 −$11 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $161 +$39 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $314 +$55 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $56 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $200 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $484 +$35 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $162 +$37 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $248 −$95 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $87 +$15 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $180 −$49 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $27 13m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 58¢ $30 14m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 57¢ $3 21m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 57¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 57¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 57¢ $3 21m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 57¢ $1 21m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 57¢ $6 22m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 57¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 57¢ $3 22m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 57¢ $4 23m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 57¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 57¢ $6 23m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 79¢ $4 30m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 58¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 65¢ $32 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $7 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $22 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $11 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $8 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $17 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $15 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $8 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 1¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $563.91 · official $563.91 (match) · 3500 history records