Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:12:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

88
0x8837…f262
other · 9 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$5 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$30
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%
Chart Positions 2 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 83¢ 84¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 82¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 44¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $24 +$26 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $44 +$2 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $43 −$6 -14%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31 +$13 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 68% +$24
sports 32% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -22.4% -29.8% 43% 29% -6.7%
≤30d 7 -22.4% -29.8% 43% 29% -6.7%
≤90d 7 -22.4% -29.8% 43% 29% -6.7%
all 7 -22.4% -29.8% 43% 29% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.8% 29% -6.7%
10% -36.5% 29% -15.7%
15% -42.6% 29% -23.8%
20% -48.3% 14% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.06 · official $30.06 (match) · 22 history records