Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8837…07d7 crypto 1255 markets active 7d ago coverage 28d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$126 (-3%) realized −$126 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate28%353W / 892L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day89.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$26
14 days−$69
30 days−$402
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$74
sports 38% −$25
culture 2% −$69
politics 1% −$15
other 1% +$6
weather 1% −$11
tech 0% −$4
world 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-46.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -19.9% -27.5% 44% 39% -20.4%
≤30d 1222 -41.9% -47.4% 27% 16% -18.7%
≤90d 1245 -40.3% -46.0% 28% 17% -13.5%
all 1245 -40.3% -46.0% 28% 17% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.0% 17% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -51.2% 12% -21.8%
15% -55.9% 9% -29.3%
20% -60.2% 6% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses353 / 892
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1245 / 1255
History coverage28d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day89.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Silva be the next manager of SSC Napoli? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+48%)
Will Pep Guardiola be the next manager of SSC Napoli? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+48%)
James Collier announced as next James Bond? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+48%)
Will Josh Kimbrell win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Chris Madel win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Dries Mertens be the next manager of SSC Napoli? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Thomas Frank be the next manager of SSC Napoli? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Oliver Glasner be the next manager of SSC Napoli? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Mauricio Pochettino be the next manager of SSC Napoli? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$4 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$1 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 3356 history records