Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8833…b458 crypto 119 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (211 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$104 (+16%) realized +$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate59%70W / 48L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day210.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$77
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (211 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 +10.8% +0.2% 59% 36% -1.8%
≤30d 118 +10.8% +0.2% 59% 36% -1.8%
≤90d 118 +10.8% +0.2% 59% 36% -1.8%
all 118 +10.8% +0.2% 59% 36% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover210.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.2% 36% -1.8%
10% ← realistic here -9.4% 25% -11.2%
15% -18.1% 15% -19.8%
20% -26.2% 7% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses70 / 48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day210.9
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 73¢ 74¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.07 · official $8.70 · 298 history records