Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:20:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
88 0x8833…2393 world 198 markets active 1h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,998 (+3%) realized +$3,599 · open +$399
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate71%137W / 56L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$752per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$4,214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$220
7 days−$88
14 days−$1,312
30 days−$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% +$5,360
other 7% −$1,830
sports 4% +$593
politics 2% +$82
crypto 1% −$247
economics 1% +$90
tech 1% −$35
weather 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -10.4% -18.9% 67% 50% -11.4%
≤30d 17 -7.2% -16.0% 65% 47% -10.5%
≤90d 34 +4.3% -5.6% 76% 47% -0.5%
all 193 -3.3% -12.5% 71% 31% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 31% -7.3%
10% -20.8% 13% -16.2%
15% -28.5% 5% -24.3%
20% -35.5% 3% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$962) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$209 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$4,214
Realized+$3,599
Unrealized+$399
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses137 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)193 / 198
History coverage531d
Avg bet$752
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 96¢ $3,143 $3,534 +$391 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 55¢ 55¢ $583 $578 −$5 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 77¢ 92¢ $81 $96 +$15 (+19%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-25%)
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 24 $369 −$353 -96%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 24 $23 −$6 -25%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $407 +$102 +25%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 23 $62 +$7 +11%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $167 +$30 +18%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3,125 +$132 +4%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $166 +$35 +21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 +$60 +59%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $825 −$321 -39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2,464 +$88 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $1,593 −$933 -59%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $1,804 −$154 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $110 −$110 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $543 +$196 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $525 +$63 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $6,592 +$843 +13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 28 $3,949 +$79 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $2,260 −$155 -7%
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? May 18 $62 +$7 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 04 $2,856 +$2,438 +85%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 28 $1,848 +$219 +12%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 25 $1,855 +$854 +46%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 15 $1,805 +$50 +3%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 7, 2026? Apr 11 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026? Apr 11 $1,089 +$349 +32%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $253 +$14 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 08 $1,388 +$52 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 07 $2,155 −$767 -36%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 04 $952 +$97 +10%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 04 $1,741 +$316 +18%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 04 $2,096 +$884 +42%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31? Apr 01 $1,619 +$66 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 01 $3,639 +$379 +10%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $1,947 +$487 +25%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 21 $2,197 +$348 +16%
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31? Mar 17 $1,089 +$205 +19%
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? Mar 15 $1,005 +$63 +6%
Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31? Mar 12 $1,232 +$155 +13%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31? Mar 11 $706 +$47 +7%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31? Mar 06 $2,074 −$744 -36%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 06 $476 +$33 +7%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Mar 05 $807 +$24 +3%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026? Mar 05 $1,066 +$86 +8%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 04 $962 +$104 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Mar 03 $506 +$13 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Mar 03 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Mar 03 $173 −$6 -3%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 03 $1,353 −$69 -5%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 02 $460 −$192 -42%
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026? Mar 02 $512 −$309 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL Yes $17 1h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $16 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $506 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $509 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $77 16h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $69 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $223 22h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $196 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $407 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $6 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $10 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $9 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $81 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $38 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $15 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $100 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $6 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $31 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $21 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $8 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $14 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2,491 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $3,257 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,213.79 · official $4,213.79 (match) · 1321 history records