Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:57:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8832…1fc4 sports 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,631 (-23%) realized −$1,591 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%58W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$100
14 days−$100
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$1,582
tech 3% −$25
finance 1% −$19
other 1% +$26
crypto 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 10 -27.3% -34.2% 30% 30% -53.9%
≤90d 144 -15.5% -23.6% 40% 40% -31.0%
all 144 -15.5% -23.6% 40% 40% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 40% -31.0%
10% -30.9% 39% -37.6%
15% -37.6% 39% -43.7%
20% -43.7% 36% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$47 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,591
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses58 / 86
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 144
History coverage74d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yangon Galacticos 50¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: 1win vs South America Rejects (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 P Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Ignite (BO5) - Esports World Cup North America Jun 04 $7 −$7 -97%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $23 +$45 +194%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $25 −$24 -98%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $26 −$25 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $33 +$52 +158%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $19 +$14 +74%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner May 21 $77 −$76 -99%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 20 $67 −$66 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $51 +$46 +90%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner May 20 $25 +$21 +82%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $51 +$127 +249%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 19 $54 −$53 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $84 +$59 +70%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner May 19 $25 +$20 +81%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner May 19 $20 +$16 +81%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $58 +$35 +59%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $35 +$24 +67%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 17 $34 +$22 +64%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner May 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 17 $51 +$27 +54%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 17 $40 +$35 +89%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner May 16 $47 −$46 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner May 16 $51 +$44 +86%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $51 +$39 +76%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner May 16 $61 +$44 +73%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner May 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner May 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs ex-HEROIC - Game 2 Winner May 15 $51 +$34 +68%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner May 15 $41 +$39 +97%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 14 $101 +$65 +64%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 14 $85 −$24 -28%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 13 $152 +$64 +42%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 13 $51 +$35 +68%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 13 $25 +$15 +59%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner May 13 $10 +$15 +152%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner May 13 $35 +$21 +58%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner May 13 $51 +$42 +83%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 13 $25 +$30 +118%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Yangon Galacticos 50¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 25¢ $10 14d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Ignite (BO5) - Esports World Cup North America BUY Ignite 1¢ $2 15d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Ignite (BO5) - Esports World Cup North America BUY Ignite 1¢ $5 15d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 99¢ $68 15d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 33¢ $23 15d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 14¢ $25 15d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 32¢ $26 18d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif BUY Aurora 38¢ $33 20d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL Tundra Esports 99¢ $33 20d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Tundra Esports 56¢ $19 20d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 53¢ $77 29d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $51 29d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 37¢ $9 30d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 35¢ $58 30d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs SELL Tundra Esports 100¢ $96 30d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Tundra Esports 52¢ $51 30d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $46 30d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 54¢ $25 30d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs SELL Aurora 100¢ $178 31d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Aurora 28¢ $51 31d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 48¢ $54 31d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs SELL PARIVISION 100¢ $73 31d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $41 31d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 26¢ $6 31d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs SELL PARIVISION 96¢ $70 31d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Spirit 99¢ $46 31d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 54¢ $25 31d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL PARIVISION 99¢ $36 31d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 54¢ $20 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 276 history records