Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x882f…a8c0 sports 23 markets active 21h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
✗ bot/MM pace (103 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$174,297 (-27%) realized −$174,297 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate74%17W / 6L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27,714per market
Trades / day102.7pace
Fees−$4,363est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$171,349
7 days−$164,614
14 days−$174,775
30 days−$174,775
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$137,178
other 17% −$39,471
crypto 0% +$1,875
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (103 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)+22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 56% 56% -38.9%
≤30d 23 +35.2% +22.3% 74% 74% -34.3%
≤90d 23 +35.2% +22.3% 74% 74% -34.3%
all 23 +35.2% +22.3% 74% 74% -34.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover102.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.3% 74% -34.3%
10% +10.6% 65% -40.6%
15% ← realistic here -0.1% 57% -46.4%
20% -9.9% 39% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$14,636) neutral
Persistence
early +50% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
44.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8,884 vs −$54,300 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$174,297
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses17 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$4,363
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage10d
Avg bet$27,714
Trades / day102.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $185,359 −$185,349 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $36,000 +$14,000 +39%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $6,579 +$16,421 +250%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $70,219 −$70,147 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13,000 −$13,000 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,438 −$1,429 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $14,636 +$5,996 +41%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,473 +$527 +21%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $176,631 +$68,369 +39%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52,260 −$52,257 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $11,830 +$8,670 +73%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $625 +$1,875 +300%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3,620 −$3,620 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $14,586 +$3,729 +26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $12,802 +$3,604 +28%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5,248 +$6,752 +129%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $4,500 +$3,500 +78%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8,092 +$1,657 +20%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,964 +$1,536 +78%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $3,640 +$1,860 +51%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10,932 +$11,963 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $680 +$320 +47%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $315 +$250 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $2,165 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $6 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $6 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $5 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $0 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $4 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $8,633 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $4 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $25 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $25 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $25 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $110 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $110 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $110 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $44 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $29 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $676 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $25 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $25 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $3 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1,108 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $3 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $8 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $21,329 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $22 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $22 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $14,884 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $576 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1,377 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1,425 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1061 history records