Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x882d…a8fe crypto 312 markets active 3d ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$170 (+2%) realized +$170 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%78W / 234L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day28.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$268
14 days−$140
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$38
other 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 -6.7% -15.6% 30% 30% -15.9%
≤30d 312 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 25% -9.4%
≤90d 312 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 25% -9.4%
all 312 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 25% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 25% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 25% -18.0%
15% -26.2% 24% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 24% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$24 · ×3.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses78 / 234
Open positions0
Markets (closed)312 / 312
History coverage21d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 312 Trades
no open positions (205 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$50 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$30 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $44 +$117 +268%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$50 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$76 +298%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $34 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $40 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $46 −$44 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$32 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$41 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$26 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$14 +336%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$40 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $35 −$33 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$29 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $37 −$20 -55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$25 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $151 −$144 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $81 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $53 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $21 4d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 4d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 4d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 4d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 4d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 4d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 4d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 4d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 700 history records