Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
88 0x882b…2777 sports 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$449 (+21%) realized +$449 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%76W / 67L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$155
7 days+$359
14 days+$511
30 days+$477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$214
other 43% +$224
world 4% −$2
crypto 3% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +52.1% +37.6% 74% 74% +38.5%
≤30d 60 +15.3% +4.3% 62% 62% +18.9%
≤90d 88 +14.0% +3.1% 58% 58% +16.7%
all 143 +1.4% -8.3% 53% 53% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 53% +9.2%
10% -17.1% 53% -1.3%
15% -25.1% 53% -10.8%
20% -32.4% 45% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$449
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses76 / 67
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)143 / 149
History coverage236d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 50¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+7%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Canada leading at halftime? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $32 +$39 +124%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $28 +$35 +124%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $33 +$39 +119%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $29 +$25 +84%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $28 +$17 +60%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $34 +$33 +99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $28 −$28 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $29 +$46 +162%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$73 +246%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$24 +79%
France leading at halftime? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $28 +$29 +103%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $30 +$30 +97%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $29 +$19 +64%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas: O/U 163.5 Jun 13 $25 +$19 +77%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $28 −$28 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $29 +$30 +103%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $28 +$20 +70%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $28 +$25 +88%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $29 +$30 +101%
England leading at halftime? Jun 10 $35 +$17 +48%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $28 +$26 +93%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $25 +$31 +121%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $29 −$29 -98%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $25 +$28 +110%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $30 −$20 -65%
Hungary leading at halftime? Jun 09 $25 −$25 -99%
Indonesia leading at halftime? Jun 09 $25 +$13 +50%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $27 −$27 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $30 +$13 +43%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $39 −$39 -99%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $28 +$18 +64%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $30 +$30 +97%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $25 −$25 -98%
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $30 +$18 +59%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $25 +$16 +61%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $49 +$22 +45%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $15 −$15 -99%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $58 +$25 +44%
Romania vs. Wales: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $25 +$24 +93%
Canada vs. Republic of Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $41 +$44 +109%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $47 +$22 +46%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $29 +$17 +59%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $18 +$12 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 25 $4 −$4 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $36 1h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $34 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $71 5h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $32 10h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $71 11h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $33 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $28 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $33 26h
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 27h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 33h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will United States win on 2026-06 BUY 46¢ $28 36h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $29 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $28 2d
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $28 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $67 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $28 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $28 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 3d
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $34 3d
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $54 3d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 3d
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $29 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 4d
Scotland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $60 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.13 · official $185.13 · 231 history records