Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:10:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x882a…23b7 crypto 262 markets active 1d ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-4%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate69%177W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$7
sports 14% −$3
world 8% −$5
other 4% −$7
politics 3% +$2
tech 2% −$4
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -10.9% -19.4% 73% 41% -19.7%
≤30d 250 -5.2% -14.3% 71% 40% -14.1%
≤90d 255 -6.7% -15.6% 69% 39% -15.0%
all 255 -6.7% -15.6% 69% 39% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 39% -15.0%
10% -23.7% 24% -23.1%
15% -31.1% 15% -30.6%
20% -37.8% 9% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses177 / 78
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)255 / 262
History coverage30d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 62¢ 89¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+44%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 69¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 69¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 62¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 85¢ 73¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 13¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $6 −$2 -34%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 197.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +15%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $1 $0 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +9%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +18%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $1 $0 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 46h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL No 97¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? SELL No 98¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 5d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 82¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.85 · official $12.85 (match) · 580 history records