Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8827…6c64 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%10W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$5
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$4
other 22% −$3
sports 2% $0
politics 2% −$2
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.4% -12.6% 12% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 18 +15.8% +4.8% 39% 6% -10.0%
≤90d 18 +15.8% +4.8% 39% 6% -10.0%
all 31 +5.0% -5.0% 32% 3% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 3% -10.4%
10% -14.1% 3% -19.0%
15% -22.4% 3% -26.8%
20% -30.0% 3% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage447d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $91 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $83 −$2 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -23%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $71 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $41 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $45 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $40 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $58 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $80 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $14 +$1 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 25 $18 −$2 -12%
Will the People-Animals-Nature Party win the most seats in the 2025 Po May 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 13 $18 $0 -2%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 10 $19 $0 -0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 08 $21 −$3 -14%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Apr 03 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $31 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $31 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $25 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $25 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 31h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $19 34h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $19 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $27 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $27 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $8 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $39 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $39 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $12 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $16 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $30 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $6 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $13 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $24 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $6 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $32 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.09 · official $2.94 (match) · 107 history records