Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:25:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8827…d1f3 weather 536 markets active 0h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$211 (+6%) realized +$211 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate71%381W / 154L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$9
14 days+$8
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 50% +$19
crypto 36% +$228
sports 7% −$4
other 6% $0
world 2% −$50
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +9.8% -0.7% 96% 19% +0.2%
≤30d 114 -3.4% -12.6% 80% 32% -5.9%
≤90d 446 -6.5% -15.4% 71% 34% -13.3%
all 535 -2.2% -11.5% 71% 39% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 39% -4.9%
10% -20.0% 24% -14.0%
15% -27.7% 18% -22.3%
20% -34.8% 14% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$211
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses381 / 154
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)535 / 536
History coverage113d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 535 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 90¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +32%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +233%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.93 · official $0.93 (match) · 1188 history records