Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:12:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
88 0x8826…4773 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$131 (+10%) realized +$96 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$510now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$63
sports 41% +$115
crypto 5% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +3.3% -6.6% 41% 41% +3.7%
≤30d 22 +3.3% -6.6% 41% 41% +3.7%
≤90d 22 +3.3% -6.6% 41% 41% +3.7%
all 22 +3.3% -6.6% 41% 41% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 41% +3.7%
10% -15.5% 41% -6.2%
15% -23.7% 41% -15.3%
20% -31.2% 36% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$25 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$510
Realized+$96
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)22 / 29
History coverage2d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 89¢ 100¢ $200 $225 +$25 (+12%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 70¢ 100¢ $50 $71 +$21 (+43%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$30 +146%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 +$100 +50%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 +$15 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $40 +$24 +60%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 +$146 +712%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 +$13 +65%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $51 −$41 -81%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $91 +$78 +86%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $21 +$18 +86%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$19 +73%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 30¢ $22 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 70¢ $50 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 89¢ $201 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $36 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $56 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $76 3h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 98¢ $50 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $303 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 14h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $20 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 14h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $15 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 26h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 60¢ $20 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 27h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 68¢ $25 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $25 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 28h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 30h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 30h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 30h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 30h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 30h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $510.21 · official $510.25 (match) · 61 history records