Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:03:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
88 0x8825…7e4b crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate94%17W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +2.6% -7.2% 94% 6% -10.3%
≤30d 18 +2.6% -7.2% 94% 6% -10.3%
≤90d 18 +2.6% -7.2% 94% 6% -10.3%
all 18 +2.6% -7.2% 94% 6% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 6% -10.3%
10% -16.1% 6% -18.9%
15% -24.2% 6% -26.7%
20% -31.6% 6% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$30 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses17 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $42 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $39 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $38 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $48 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $47 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $46 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records