Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8824…a60f other 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,072 (+1%) realized +$1,073 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate20%28W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$898per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,042now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$19
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$24
politics 26% −$42
sports 11% +$1,083
culture 4% −$7
economics 3% −$2
crypto 1% +$6
world 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 69 +1.4% -8.2% 7% 3% -8.5%
all 140 -1.0% -10.4% 20% 11% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 11% -8.8%
10% -19.0% 10% -17.5%
15% -26.8% 9% -25.5%
20% -34.0% 8% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,502) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$6 · ×9.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$1,042
Realized+$1,073
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses28 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)140 / 142
History coverage156d
Avg bet$898
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $708 $708 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $334 $334 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $281 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,651 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $919 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,566 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,090 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,257 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $4,001 −$6 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $912 −$1 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $995 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,972 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,567 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $4,146 −$4 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $624 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $913 +$4 +0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $1,417 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,039 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $1,243 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,339 −$2 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $1,266 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,619 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $1,502 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $1,686 −$3 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $1,697 −$2 -0%
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $1,333 +$176 +13%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $1,658 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $4,132 −$4 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,622 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,653 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $3,289 −$3 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $2,634 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,657 −$2 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $2,562 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,633 −$3 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,640 −$2 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,646 −$2 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $1,637 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,652 −$2 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $1,564 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,563 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $1,429 −$1 -0%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 10 $1,145 +$1,067 +93%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $2,005 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $334 1h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $280 1h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $281 4h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $488 22h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $489 24h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $708 29h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $918 4d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $919 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $900 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $901 5d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,088 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,090 6d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,255 7d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,257 7d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $990 7d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $992 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $848 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $850 7d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $910 10d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $912 10d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $993 10d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $995 11d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $664 11d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $665 12d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,507 14d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,510 14d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,564 14d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,567 15d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,608 15d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,611 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,042.10 · official $1,042.10 (match) · 441 history records