Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x881f…8561 crypto 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+2%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate76%62W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day60.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$5
politics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +1.9% -7.8% 76% 48% -10.3%
≤30d 82 +1.9% -7.8% 76% 48% -10.3%
≤90d 82 +1.9% -7.8% 76% 48% -10.3%
all 82 +1.9% -7.8% 76% 48% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 48% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 29% -18.9%
15% -24.7% 18% -26.7%
20% -32.1% 9% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses62 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage6d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day60.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$7 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$7 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $72 −$24 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$19 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $57 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $38 −$29 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$11 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $112 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $112 −$34 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$24 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $106 −$33 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $62 +$13 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $47 +$18 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $92 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $69 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$12 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $23 −$15 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 468 history records