Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:10:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x881d…ad87 world 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate35%29W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days−$0
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$15
other 19% −$5
politics 11% −$1
sports 8% −$2
economics 6% −$1
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 57% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 28 +2.7% -7.1% 46% 11% -8.7%
≤90d 75 +1.3% -8.4% 37% 5% -9.1%
all 82 -3.5% -12.7% 35% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 5% -9.5%
10% -21.0% 4% -18.1%
15% -28.7% 2% -26.0%
20% -35.7% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses29 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)82 / 84
History coverage530d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $62 $62 +$0 (+0%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $89 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $22 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $49 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $110 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $106 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $41 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $58 −$2 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $119 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $125 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $57 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $43 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $101 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $26 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $102 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $108 +$8 +7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $74 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $46 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $25 −$18 -73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $81 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $53 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $3 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $52 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $61 +$14 +22%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $11 +$8 +78%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $11 +$4 +38%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 21 $3 $0 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 19 $23 $0 -0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $42 +$1 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 18 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $3 $0 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $95 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $41 −$1 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $84 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $2 $0 -10%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $21 $0 -1%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $3 $0 +4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $39 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $62 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $28 13h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $9 13h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 85¢ $37 17h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $10 21h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $32 21h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $10 21h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $52 24h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $14 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $22 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 38h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 38h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 38h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $16 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $49 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $55 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $15 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $19 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $12 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.35 · official $62.35 (match) · 374 history records