Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:20:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x881b…79bd sports 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%15W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$5
other 24% −$1
politics 20% −$1
crypto 14% −$1
economics 6% −$1
culture 4% $0
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 5 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 144 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses15 / 129
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)144 / 144
History coverage163d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 144 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $145 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 04 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun May 27 $31 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $76 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 21 $77 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 20 $4 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 20 $8 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $180 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $84 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 18 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 18 $58 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $140 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 18 $397 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of February? Feb 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 16 $82 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $81 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 15 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 15 $75 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 15 $86 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 15 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 13 $267 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 13 $79 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 13 $75 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 13 $94 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February? Feb 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will Czech Republic win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Wi Feb 10 $88 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $41 1h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $41 5h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 7d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 92¢ $41 20d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 93¢ $42 20d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 91¢ $30 28d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 91¢ $31 28d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $43 39d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $43 39d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $39 123d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 92¢ $2 124d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 93¢ $2 124d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 92¢ $2 124d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 93¢ $2 124d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $3 124d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $3 124d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $1 124d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $38 124d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $40 124d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $40 124d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $35 124d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $35 124d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $37 125d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $37 125d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $41 125d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $41 125d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $40 125d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $40 125d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 93¢ $41 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 525 history records