Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:48:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x881a…c7f0 crypto 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$79 (-16%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate49%17W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$120
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-42.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -72.9% -75.5% 25% 0% -89.0%
≤30d 14 -38.5% -44.3% 43% 14% -51.2%
≤90d 35 -35.9% -42.0% 49% 26% -36.6%
all 35 -35.9% -42.0% 49% 26% -36.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.0% 26% -36.6%
10% -47.5% 14% -42.7%
15% -52.6% 11% -48.2%
20% -57.3% 3% -53.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage61d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 50¢ 72¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$10 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 22 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 22 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 22 $21 −$16 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 22 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 22 $12 +$6 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 22 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 22 $74 −$72 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 22 $57 +$17 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 22 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 22 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 22 $30 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 22 $8 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 22 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 22 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 22 $55 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 22 $24 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 22 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 22 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 22 $20 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 16 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 16 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 16 $11 −$5 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $3 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $3 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $4 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $16 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.72 · official $0.72 (match) · 97 history records