Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:14:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
88 0x881a…cccc other 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,707 (+11%) realized +$1,719 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate43%53W / 70L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$292
7 days+$300
14 days+$429
30 days+$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$1,378
politics 1% −$82
crypto 1% −$13
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +7.0% -3.2% 14% 14% +26.3%
≤30d 33 -2.3% -11.6% 39% 24% -5.6%
≤90d 75 +24.9% +13.0% 41% 29% +0.4%
all 123 +17.8% +6.6% 43% 31% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.6% 31% -1.2%
10% -3.6% 24% -10.7%
15% -12.9% 18% -19.3%
20% -21.4% 14% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$46 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$1,719
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses53 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage110d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $82 $71 −$12 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $23 −$21 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 28 $314 −$251 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $13 −$6 -45%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $18 −$17 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $18 −$11 -58%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $22 −$4 -17%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June Jun 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $82 +$585 +717%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $137 −$75 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $213 −$29 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $161 +$466 +289%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $356 −$249 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $294 −$284 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $168 −$3 -2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $675 +$415 +61%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $231 −$10 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $455 +$141 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $557 +$139 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $342 −$211 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $605 −$303 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $811 −$295 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $80 +$4 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $556 +$32 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1,012 +$20 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $65 +$14 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $101 +$106 +105%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $87 +$24 +28%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $396 +$36 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $1,627 +$131 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $11 −$3 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $490 +$502 +102%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $179 −$10 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $49 −$35 -72%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $224 +$87 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $295 +$66 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $192 +$481 +251%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $1,208 −$416 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $280 −$257 -92%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $22 −$20 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $231 −$14 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $78 −$46 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 25 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $28 −$22 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $7 −$6 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $85 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 29h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 29h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 29h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 29h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 41h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 42h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $78 43h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $48 43h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $30 43h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 43h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 43h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 45h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $45 45h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $38 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $17 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $17 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $25 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.75 · official $70.75 (match) · 1324 history records