Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:55:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

88
0x8817…c7b0
crypto · 310 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$99 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$89 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$89
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses129 / 178
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)307 / 310
History coverage20d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 3 History 307 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$130
7 days−$87
14 days−$114
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$17 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$13 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$11 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$18 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$18 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$15 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$10 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$11 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $6 +$17 +275%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 08 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 08 $6 +$9 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $7 +$7 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 08 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $6 +$47 +733%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% −$99
other 3% −$3
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $9 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $9 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -4.1% -13.3% 40% 40% -18.2%
≤30d 307 -7.1% -15.9% 42% 41% -14.3%
≤90d 307 -7.1% -15.9% 42% 41% -14.3%
all 307 -7.1% -15.9% 42% 41% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 41% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 41% -22.5%
15% -31.3% 39% -30.0%
20% -38.0% 39% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.07 · official $4.24 (match) · 624 history records