Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:08:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

88
0x8817…cda8
weather · 411 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$3,702 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,614 · open +$69
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,601
Realized+$3,614
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses374 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions19
Markets (closed)394 / 411
History coverage11d
Avg bet$506
Trades / day274.7
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 19 History 394 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$653
7 days+$1,350
14 days+$3,614
30 days+$3,614
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $538 $557 +$19 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $509 $534 +$25 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $502 $502 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $335 $335 +$0 (+0%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 82¢ 87¢ $288 $304 +$16 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $301 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $263 $263 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $232 $237 +$5 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $217 $217 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $119 $119 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $94 $96 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $93 $94 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? No 95¢ 100¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+99%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C or higher on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-79%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $1,191 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $520 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $643 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $308 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 13 $136 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 13 $1,952 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $398 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $294 +$229 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1,498 +$16 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2,806 +$10 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $129 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 86°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $93 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$5 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 13 $126 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,045 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $827 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,006 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $47 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $193 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,044 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $822 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $313 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $143 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $670 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $628 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,394 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $307 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $572 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $186 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $66 −$59 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,154 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,136 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $117 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 98% +$3,327
politics 1% +$228
sports 0% +$113
other 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 8m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 34m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 34m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 59m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $155 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $160 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $425 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $33 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $114 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $29 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 94¢ $151 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $263 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $32 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $71 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 92¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $32 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $32 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $96 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $47 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $22 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 275 +0.6% -9.0% 93% 6% -8.6%
≤30d 394 +1.4% -8.2% 95% 6% -7.9%
≤90d 394 +1.4% -8.2% 95% 6% -7.9%
all 394 +1.4% -8.2% 95% 6% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover274.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 6% -7.9%
10% -17.0% 4% -16.7%
15% ← realistic here -25.0% 3% -24.8%
20% -32.4% 2% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,601.19 · official $3,601.64 (match) · 3500 history records