Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:05:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
88 0x8816…a714 politics 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$91 (-0%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%12W / 131L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$15
politics 34% −$14
sports 15% −$64
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 96 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 143 -4.6% -13.7% 8% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 5% -9.8%
10% -21.9% 3% -18.4%
15% -29.5% 3% -26.3%
20% -36.4% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses12 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage132d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $182 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $202 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $174 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $324 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $325 −$1 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $142 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $141 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 15 $399 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $196 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $325 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $190 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $170 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $333 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $154 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $180 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $169 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $209 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $197 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $159 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 03 $157 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $171 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $166 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $146 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $167 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $187 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $351 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $186 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $149 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $153 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $212 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $349 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $149 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 27 $181 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $922 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $313 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $186 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $210 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $169 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $171 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $166 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $334 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $155 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $191 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $387 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $158 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $182 25d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $182 25d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $186 26d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $186 26d
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $202 27d
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $202 29d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $174 29d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $174 29d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $181 29d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $181 30d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $141 30d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $141 32d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $148 32d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $148 32d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $142 33d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $142 35d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $141 35d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $141 35d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $197 35d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $197 36d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $196 36d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $196 37d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $162 37d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $162 38d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $177 39d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $177 39d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $190 39d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $190 40d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $170 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.99 · official $29.99 (match) · 427 history records