Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:44:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
88 0x8815…438d other 204 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,183 (+23%) realized +$4,086 · open −$903
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%83W / 116L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$656now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$86
14 days−$137
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$2,350
weather 6% +$81
crypto 3% −$95
sports 1% +$47
finance 1% +$323
world 1% −$56
culture 0% −$26
politics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +42.9% +29.3% 50% 50% -92.6%
≤30d 9 -1.6% -11.0% 56% 44% -14.5%
≤90d 45 +15.7% +4.6% 51% 40% +31.0%
all 199 +26.0% +14.0% 42% 38% +22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.0% 38% +22.8%
10% +3.1% 35% +11.1%
15% -6.9% 32% +0.4%
20% -16.0% 27% -9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$31 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$656
Realized+$4,086
Unrealized−$903
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses83 / 116
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)199 / 204
History coverage142d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 25¢ 19¢ $475 $368 −$107 (-23%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $342 $178 −$164 (-48%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $709 $78 −$630 (-89%)
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $33 $31 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $92 −$91 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $3 +$5 +186%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $123 +$55 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $120 +$128 +107%
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pr Jun 07 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $215 +$91 +42%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $88 −$57 -65%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $147 −$145 -99%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $37 +$11 +30%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $303 −$295 -97%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $263 +$73 +28%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $517 +$365 +70%
Will ADK win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives ele May 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $93 +$110 +118%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $37 −$13 -36%
Will Lando Norris achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand P May 04 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $72 +$5 +7%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $294 +$96 +32%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 02 $63 +$39 +61%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $89 −$17 -19%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $102 −$26 -25%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $31 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $459 −$448 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $115 −$37 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $510 −$268 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $878 +$1,406 +160%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $126 −$9 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 15 $6 +$2 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 15 $119 −$73 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $809 +$1,053 +130%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $502 +$355 +71%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 09 $51 −$38 -74%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Apr 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 08 $96 −$12 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 08 $97 −$4 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 08 $15 −$14 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $220 +$332 +151%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 03 $111 −$78 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 02 $100 +$19 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 02 $149 +$14 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $167 +$421 +252%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 29 $114 −$106 -94%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 28 $48 +$46 +94%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand P Mar 28 $33 +$71 +216%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Pr Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $34 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND France vs. Iraq: Both Teams BUY 54¢ $10 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $92 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $3 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 15¢ $52 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $12 15d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 15d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 15d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 15d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $18 15d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $50 15d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $81 15d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 15d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 15d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $3 15d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 15d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $131 18d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $5 18d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $47 18d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $65 18d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 19d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $111 19d
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pr SELL Yes 25¢ $11 19d
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pr SELL Yes 25¢ $12 19d
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pr BUY Yes 15¢ $3 19d
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pr BUY Yes 20¢ $4 19d
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pr BUY Yes 25¢ $5 19d
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pr BUY Yes 26¢ $1 19d
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pr BUY Yes 27¢ $5 19d
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pr BUY Yes 40¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $655.67 · official $655.67 (match) · 1503 history records