Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:11:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8815…8721 crypto 389 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,421 (-4%) realized −$1,396 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate21%81W / 306L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 138d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$2,044
finance 3% −$908
tech 1% −$180
world 0% −$173
other 0% −$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -69.7% -72.6% 6% 6% -73.7%
≤30d 97 -28.8% -35.6% 18% 16% +0.9%
≤90d 305 -38.5% -44.4% 13% 12% -24.4%
all 387 -20.6% -28.1% 21% 19% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 19% -21.4%
10% -35.0% 17% -28.9%
15% -41.3% 17% -35.8%
20% -47.0% 14% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$241 vs −$75 · ×3.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized−$1,396
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses81 / 306
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)387 / 389
History coverage138d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 387 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? No 3¢ 3¢ $133 $155 +$22 (+17%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $49 $3 −$47 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $139 +$62 +45%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $167 −$121 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $14 −$7 -52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $78 −$64 -82%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$18 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $296 −$171 -58%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $120 −$108 -90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $96 −$65 -67%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $65 −$59 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $379 −$86 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $137 −$87 -64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $214 −$181 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $48 −$34 -71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $64 +$227 +355%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $139 −$125 -90%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 7? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? Jun 14 $32 −$19 -61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 14 $192 −$192 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 14 $425 −$328 -77%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 14 $291 −$233 -80%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 4? Jun 14 $522 −$522 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 14 $554 −$509 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? Jun 14 $244 −$216 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 14 $214 −$207 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $37 −$36 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $159 −$92 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $119 −$111 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $194 −$105 -54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $361 −$101 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $380 −$374 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $66 −$62 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $53 −$46 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $481 −$434 -90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $328 −$321 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $227 +$1,037 +456%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $51 −$49 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $210 −$178 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $105 −$11 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $53 −$50 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $374 −$325 -87%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 7? Jun 07 $452 −$317 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $500 +$110 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $72 −$41 -57%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 7? Jun 07 $200 −$178 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $301 −$183 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 3¢ $1 10m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 3¢ $5 10m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 3¢ $1 15m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 3¢ $0 20m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 3¢ $28 20m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 3¢ $56 32m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 3¢ $46 52m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL No 4¢ $40 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? SELL No 1¢ $35 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? SELL No 2¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $101 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL No 0¢ $7 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL No 15¢ $96 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $17 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL No 17¢ $17 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 3¢ $11 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 3¢ $6 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 3¢ $1 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 3¢ $6 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 3¢ $0 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 3¢ $6 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 3¢ $6 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 3¢ $6 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 3¢ $0 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 3¢ $6 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 3¢ $0 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL No 13¢ $48 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $10 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.57 · official $157.57 (match) · 1711 history records