Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:24:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8814…5bb1 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate59%24W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$2
other 31% +$4
culture 19% −$10
finance 3% −$4
politics 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 15 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 13% -10.6%
all 41 -1.4% -10.8% 59% 5% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 5% -10.4%
10% -19.4% 2% -18.9%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses24 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage455d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 26 $37 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $43 −$4 -10%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $24 $0 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $37 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $53 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $32 +$8 +24%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $79 −$10 -12%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 15 $156 +$3 +2%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Mar 15 $156 $0 +0%
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 15 $17 $0 +2%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $248 −$11 -4%
Jock Landale: Points O/U 13.5 Mar 14 $7 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $155 +$1 +1%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Dec 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $6 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Newfoundland and Lab Apr 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 26 $5 $0 +3%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 23 $6 $0 -1%
Will X buy TikTok? Apr 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 22 $6 $0 -0%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 19 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 28? Mar 31 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $36 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $37 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $13 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $20 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $7 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $26 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $3 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $34 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $37 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $24 31d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $24 31d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $37 31d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $37 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 32d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 32d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 32d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $38 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $6 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $31 32d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $22 33d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $13 33d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $12 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $12 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.63 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records