Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:21:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8813…9254 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 463d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-3%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$15
other 15% −$3
politics 5% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.1% -11.4% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 13 -2.1% -11.5% 23% 0% -12.3%
≤90d 13 -2.1% -11.5% 23% 0% -12.3%
all 30 -0.5% -9.9% 50% 3% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 3% -12.1%
10% -18.6% 0% -20.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -28.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

463d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage463d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 52¢ 52¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $67 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $72 −$3 -5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $67 −$13 -19%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $48 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Wim Eijk be the next pope? Apr 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 14 $10 $0 -0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will egg prices be more than $6.00 in March? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $12 $0 +0%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 30 $11 $0 +3%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 9-11m on opening weekend? Mar 16 $14 −$3 -22%
Will another team have the highest Constructor score at the Australian Mar 15 $1 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $5 2h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $27 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $31 7h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $31 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $22 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $13 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $35 22h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $31 35h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $31 38h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $31 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $31 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $35 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $35 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $32 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $32 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $0 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $9 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $3 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 15¢ $24 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $19 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $23 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $42 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.41 · official $31.41 (match) · 89 history records