Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:08:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x880f…1596 world 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%7W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$1
politics 20% $0
sports 12% −$1
other 11% −$1
economics 8% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
all 37 -1.7% -11.0% 19% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses7 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage266d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $58 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $29 −$1 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 07 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Oct 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? Oct 05 $3 $0 -15%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 04 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $27 −$1 -2%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 04 $19 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Oct 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 -1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 27 $80 $0 -0%
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 40% and 45%? Sep 27 $1 −$1 -43%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 25 $27 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $40 7m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $40 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $21 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 31h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $40 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $40 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 35¢ $28 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 36¢ $29 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $18 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $18 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $40 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $34 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $34 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 11d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $37 12d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $37 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $40 13d
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 254d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records