Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:49:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

88
0x880d…70e5
crypto · 281 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$74 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$73 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$73
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses171 / 109
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)280 / 281
History coverage20d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 280 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$18
14 days−$124
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Up 20¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jamie Mackenzie 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$73
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 47m
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt BUY Jamie Mackenzie 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -15.2% -23.3% 60% 60% -24.5%
≤30d 280 -7.7% -16.5% 61% 55% -17.5%
≤90d 280 -7.7% -16.5% 61% 55% -17.5%
all 280 -7.7% -16.5% 61% 55% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 55% -17.5%
10% -24.5% 50% -25.4%
15% -31.8% 36% -32.6%
20% -38.5% 21% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.58 · official $1.24 (match) · 592 history records