Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:22:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

88
0x880d…621e
sports · 62 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$55 +20%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$60 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$32
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses29 / 27
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)56 / 62
History coverage116d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 6 History 56 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$71
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 70¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 54¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$6 -62%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 $0 -7%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$4 +90%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4 +$4 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$9 +44%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +250%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -79%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$7 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$9 +46%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $12 +$13 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 04 $2 +$6 +282%
Cavaliers vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5 Apr 03 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 02 $2 +$2 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 02 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 02 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 02 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 02 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 02 $2 +$1 +71%
Will Czechia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-03-31? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $1 +$2 +196%
Kosovo vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Mar 31 $2 −$2 -82%
Sweden vs. Poland: Both Teams to Score Mar 31 $2 +$1 +54%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 31 $2 +$4 +188%
Lakers vs. Nuggets Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during the 2 Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during the 2026 State of the Union addr Feb 26 $2 +$4 +213%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 44% +$53
other 34% +$19
crypto 20% −$19
tech 1% +$3
politics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 1h
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 12h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 12h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 12h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 12h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 12h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 13h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 50¢ $10 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 17h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $7 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 18h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 22h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 36h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $10 36h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $3 36h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 36h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $4 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 38h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 38h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $3 39h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 40h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 40h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $4 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +28.6% +16.4% 62% 62% +29.9%
≤30d 24 +28.6% +16.4% 62% 62% +29.9%
≤90d 48 +14.1% +3.3% 56% 56% +15.4%
all 56 +5.8% -4.3% 52% 52% +13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 52% +13.4%
10% -13.5% 48% +2.5%
15% -21.8% 45% -7.4%
20% -29.5% 38% -16.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.22 · official $32.22 (match) · 132 history records