Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8808…f6d8 crypto 301 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-3%) realized −$44 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%144W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$20
14 days−$17
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$93
weather 32% +$17
politics 3% +$1
finance 3% +$1
other 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -53.3% -57.7% 44% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 23 -41.1% -46.7% 57% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 184 -16.3% -24.2% 45% 38% -13.2%
all 300 -12.6% -20.9% 48% 41% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 41% -13.1%
10% -28.5% 39% -21.4%
15% -35.4% 38% -29.0%
20% -41.7% 36% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses144 / 156
Open positions1
Markets (closed)300 / 301
History coverage97d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 300 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Yes 85¢ 78¢ $74 $67 −$7 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $73 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $71 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $67 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $62 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $59 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $54 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $52 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 3? Jun 07 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 1? Jun 03 $47 +$1 +2%
Will David Brock Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon? May 24 $46 +$1 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $109 on May 20? May 21 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $44 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 29 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 29 $16 +$12 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Mar 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Mar 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 29 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 29 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 29 $4 +$5 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 29 $2 +$2 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Mar 29 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 29 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Mar 29 $4 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Mar 29 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Mar 29 $4 +$5 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 85¢ $74 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $74 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $73 16h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $73 16h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $71 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 41h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 94¢ $67 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $68 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $62 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 95¢ $59 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? BUY Yes 91¢ $54 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9? BUY Yes 97¢ $52 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 7d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 3? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 1? BUY No 98¢ $47 13d
Will David Brock Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon? BUY Yes 98¢ $46 24d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $109 on May 20? BUY No 98¢ $45 26d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $16 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.20 · official $67.20 (match) · 623 history records