Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:09:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
88 0x8808…90c1 crypto 459 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$731 (+2%) realized +$715 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate83%382W / 76L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$200
7 days+$253
14 days+$253
30 days+$251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$518
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 249 +5.6% -4.4% 90% 47% -3.3%
≤30d 261 +5.5% -4.6% 90% 47% -3.4%
≤90d 458 +1.1% -8.5% 83% 44% -8.1%
all 458 +1.1% -8.5% 83% 44% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 44% -8.1%
10% -17.3% 23% -16.9%
15% -25.3% 12% -24.9%
20% -32.6% 5% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$52 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$715
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses382 / 76
Open positions1
Markets (closed)458 / 459
History coverage76d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 458 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Down 0¢ 86¢ $0 $16 +$16 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $14 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 28 $32 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 28 $6 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$15 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $41 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $19 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $28 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $58 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $47 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $33 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 27 $30 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $29 −$9 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $35 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 27 $28 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 27 $19 +$8 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $17 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $17 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.98 · official $13.03 · 1211 history records