Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:47:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8806…2e83 sports 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (125 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$994 (+0%) realized +$994 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate65%90W / 49L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,500per market
Trades / day125.1pace
Fees−$3,886est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$1,504
other 31% +$12,646
world 0% −$59
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (125 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +13.6% +2.7% 56% 32% -1.3%
≤30d 139 +4.7% -5.3% 65% 29% -2.9%
≤90d 139 +4.7% -5.3% 65% 29% -2.9%
all 139 +4.7% -5.3% 65% 29% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover125.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 29% -2.9%
10% -14.4% 17% -12.2%
15% ← realistic here -22.6% 12% -20.6%
20% -30.2% 11% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$2,834) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$675 vs −$952 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$994
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses90 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$3,886
Open positions0
Markets (closed)139 / 139
History coverage22d
Avg bet$3,500
Trades / day125.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 139 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,877 +$18 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4,690 +$15,244 +325%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $206 −$200 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $419 +$523 +125%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,796 −$813 -45%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $206 −$200 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,502 +$1,235 +82%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $272 +$41 +15%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $7,481 −$237 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $222 −$216 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $823 +$24 +3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,980 +$383 +19%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $527 +$558 +106%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,296 −$49 -4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4,678 −$4,676 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $513 −$512 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $9,150 +$2,366 +26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $18,071 +$162 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3,930 −$2,994 -76%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $4,067 +$863 +21%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4,810 +$143 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8,986 +$231 +3%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7,923 +$1,219 +15%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17,774 −$2,702 -15%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $60,220 −$11,947 -20%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $528 −$526 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10,449 +$505 +5%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1,253 +$217 +17%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,437 −$375 -26%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $4,340 −$334 -8%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $206 −$108 -52%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4,710 +$140 +3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $15,821 +$152 +1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $64 +$263 +412%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2,110 −$3 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $21,986 +$505 +2%
England vs. Costa Rica: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $215 +$15 +7%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $369 +$109 +30%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-05-30? Jun 10 $647 +$32 +5%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1,664 +$3,200 +192%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $2,834 −$18 -1%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1,543 +$15 +1%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $1,662 +$185 +11%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $184 +$73 +39%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $88 +$26 +30%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $500 +$66 +13%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $7,985 −$914 -11%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $5,002 +$48 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $29 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $959 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $74 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $19 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $51 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $25 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $17 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $7 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $297 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $3 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $19 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $13 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $82 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $57 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $13 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $29 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $183 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $1,982 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $3,819 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $23 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $1,342 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $3,688 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $11 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $946 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $1,826 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2904 history records