Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:51:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8804…fa97 crypto 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20 (-3%) realized −$11 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate57%63W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$6
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$15
other 16% −$6
finance 15% +$6
world 4% −$12
sports 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -59.3% -63.1% 0% 0% -48.0%
≤30d 23 -16.8% -24.8% 52% 35% -17.0%
≤90d 49 -17.6% -25.4% 53% 31% -18.1%
all 111 +2.3% -7.5% 57% 33% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 33% -11.9%
10% -16.3% 21% -20.4%
15% -24.4% 12% -28.1%
20% -31.8% 8% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses63 / 48
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)111 / 123
History coverage137d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 45¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-87%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 93¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +12%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $4 $0 -12%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $14 −$2 -17%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $1 $0 +21%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 31 $3 $0 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +39%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 28 $3 $0 +14%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $1 $0 -26%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? May 26 $1 +$1 +52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 25 $1 +$1 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 23 $0 $0 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $15 +$1 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 20 $2 $0 +10%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 +$1 +74%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $12 $0 +2%
Will "Kendrick" or "Lamar" be said on ICEMAN? May 15 $1 $0 +17%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 29 $1 $0 +31%
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 27? Apr 28 $13 $0 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 23? Apr 23 $1 +$1 +59%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 17 $1 $0 -20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 17 $1 $0 +19%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 17 $5 −$3 -70%
TJR mentee Timmeh earns prop payout in 30 days? Apr 12 $6 −$3 -57%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Apr 12 $1 $0 -2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 9? Apr 12 $2 −$1 -30%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 10? Apr 10 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on April 7? Apr 07 $4 $0 +3%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 7? Apr 07 $3 +$1 +30%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 06 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3AM ET Mar 25 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 23 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1PM ET Mar 21 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6PM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1PM ET Mar 18 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10AM ET Mar 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12PM ET Mar 18 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5PM ET Mar 14 $2 −$1 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $1 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $1 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $1 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $1 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 67¢ $2 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $1 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY $1 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $1 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $4 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 1 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1 9d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? SELL Up 70¢ $3 11d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? BUY Up 79¢ $4 11d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 2? SELL Up 78¢ $2 12d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 2? BUY Up 76¢ $2 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 13d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? BUY Up 80¢ $3 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $0 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.94 · official $12.94 (match) · 325 history records