Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:52:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8804…3542 crypto 915 markets active 0h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$420 (-1%) realized −$411 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%443W / 470L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$135
7 days+$120
14 days+$120
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$678
other 0% −$19
world 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +22.2% +10.5% 47% 47% +5.9%
≤30d 26 +10.3% -0.2% 46% 46% -7.0%
≤90d 93 -4.8% -13.9% 42% 42% -25.5%
all 913 +0.8% -8.8% 49% 40% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 40% -10.8%
10% -17.5% 39% -19.3%
15% -25.5% 37% -27.1%
20% -32.8% 36% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$50 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized−$411
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses443 / 470
Open positions2
Markets (closed)913 / 915
History coverage166d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 913 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 36¢ 48¢ $100 $135 +$35 (+35%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $45 $1 −$44 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 414 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $46 +$28 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$87 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $71 +$87 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $54 +$76 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $54 +$90 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $53 +$49 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $58 +$52 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $55 −$53 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 27 $96 −$91 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 27 $103 −$99 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 27 $102 +$97 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 27 $96 −$93 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 27 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 27 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 27 $104 +$103 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 27 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 27 $26 +$32 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 27 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 27 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 10 $104 −$98 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 10 $150 −$143 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 10 $100 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 10 $70 −$67 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 10 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 10 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 10 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 10 $45 +$40 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 09 $50 +$74 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 09 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 09 $30 +$27 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 09 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 09 $102 +$99 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 09 $43 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 09 $32 +$18 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 09 $15 +$19 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 09 $100 +$158 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 09 $69 −$66 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 09 $42 +$78 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 09 $50 +$90 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 09 $52 +$59 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 09 $49 +$44 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 09 $101 −$97 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 09 $100 −$96 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $47 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $74 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $46 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $176 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $100 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $47 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $57 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $158 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $55 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $96 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $103 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $96 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $102 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $23 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $42 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $58 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.59 · official $135.22 (match) · 2582 history records