trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -1.9% | -11.2% | 71% | 71% | -4.3% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -1.9% | -11.2% | 71% | 71% | -4.3% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -16.6% | -24.6% | 58% | 42% | -12.1% |
| all | 12 | -16.6% | -24.6% | 58% | 42% | -12.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -24.6% | 42% | -12.1% |
| 10% | -31.8% | 17% | -20.5% |
| 15% | -38.4% | 17% | -28.2% |
| 20% | -44.4% | 17% | -35.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? | Yes | 82¢ | 84¢ | $300 | $309 | +$9 (+3%) |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? | Yes | 82¢ | 82¢ | $100 | $101 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | Yes | 66¢ | 66¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? | Jun 21 | $101 | +$84 | +83% |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $212 | −$191 | -90% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $311 | +$37 | +12% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $271 | +$37 | +14% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $702 | +$84 | +12% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $101 | +$58 | +57% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | May 15 | $500 | +$30 | +6% |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | May 02 | $202 | −$200 | -99% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Apr 29 | $3,100 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Apr 27 | $104 | +$8 | +8% |
| Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? | Apr 27 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |