Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:49:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87ff…50d4 world 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% $0
other 19% +$1
finance 6% $0
politics 4% $0
crypto 1% −$2
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.6% -8.1% 33% 0% -7.0%
≤30d 15 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 28 -1.0% -10.4% 46% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 4% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage459d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $36 +$2 +5%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $65 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $31 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $31 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $34 −$4 -11%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $2 $0 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $33 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 24 $8 $0 +1%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 25 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? Apr 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 23 $8 −$2 -23%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Colombia in the first 100 days? Apr 20 $11 $0 -3%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 20 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $11 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 17 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $38 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $36 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $7 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $20 15h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $20 16h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $17 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $17 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $33 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $35 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $35 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $36 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $36 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $19 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $13 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $6 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $26 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $32 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $6 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $25 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $5 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $25 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $34 21d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records