trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +1.6% | -8.1% | 33% | 0% | -7.0% |
| ≤30d | 15 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 33% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 33% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 28 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 46% | 4% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.4% | 4% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -19.0% | 0% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -26.8% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -34.0% | 0% | -33.5% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $36 | +$2 | +5% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 18 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 17 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 03 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 02 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 02 | $65 | $0 | +0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | Jun 01 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | May 30 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 29 | $31 | +$1 | +3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | May 28 | $31 | +$1 | +3% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 28 | $34 | −$4 | -11% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 27 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 27 | $2 | $0 | -20% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 26 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 26 | $33 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 13 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Jun 24 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? | Jun 02 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? | May 15 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? | Apr 25 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Mark Carney lose his seat? | Apr 25 | $6 | +$1 | +13% |
| Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? | Apr 24 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? | Apr 23 | $8 | −$2 | -23% |
| Will Trump impose tariffs on Colombia in the first 100 days? | Apr 20 | $11 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | Apr 20 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? | Mar 22 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? | Mar 17 | $11 | $0 | -0% |