Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:29:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

87
0x87ff…6b1c
world · 68 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$29 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$32 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses24 / 41
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)65 / 68
History coverage523d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 3 History 65 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$17
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 39¢ 44¢ $23 $25 +$3 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 83¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $22 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $57 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $22 +$1 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $21 +$1 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $27 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $157 −$13 -8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $101 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $13 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $41 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $21 −$1 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $21 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $27 −$6 -23%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $23 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $58 −$3 -5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $2 $0 +13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $24 −$5 -20%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $2 $0 +10%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $2 $0 -11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $49 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $82 −$1 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $44 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $5 $0 +5%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $144 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $60 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $64 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $46 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $86 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $137 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $94 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $68 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $72 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 39% −$23
sports 20% −$1
politics 20% +$2
other 15% −$8
economics 5% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $18 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $4 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $19 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $22 7h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 28h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 40h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 42h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 42h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $23 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $22 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $21 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $21 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 97¢ $21 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 94¢ $21 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $21 4d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $21 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $21 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $4 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $17 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $21 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $17 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 6d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $13 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 27 -1.5% -10.9% 37% 4% -11.9%
≤90d 63 +0.4% -9.2% 37% 5% -10.4%
all 65 -0.0% -9.6% 37% 6% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 6% -10.7%
10% -18.2% 5% -19.2%
15% -26.1% 2% -27.0%
20% -33.4% 2% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.12 · official $25.23 (match) · 305 history records