Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:54:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87fe…03ce sports 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$207 (-10%) realized −$207 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate62%89W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$73
14 days−$73
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$174
other 4% −$27
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +2.7% -7.0% 51% 49% -19.2%
≤30d 40 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 48% -23.4%
≤90d 76 -2.2% -11.5% 61% 54% -19.0%
all 144 -6.5% -15.4% 62% 53% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 53% -18.0%
10% -23.5% 28% -25.8%
15% -30.9% 15% -33.0%
20% -37.7% 8% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses89 / 55
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)144 / 144
History coverage129d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 144 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $39 +$19 +48%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $28 +$6 +20%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$5 -46%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $19 +$9 +50%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $38 −$35 -93%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $48 +$18 +38%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $6 +$2 +34%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $17 −$11 -63%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $9 −$2 -18%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $11 −$2 -21%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $13 +$3 +26%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $14 +$4 +28%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $36 −$12 -35%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $8 −$5 -63%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $10 +$1 +11%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $7 +$5 +74%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 −$8 -54%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $15 +$3 +22%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $4 +$7 +176%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$16 +784%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$3 +34%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $6 $0 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$10 -70%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $15 −$14 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $14 −$9 -66%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 +$5 +54%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $17 +$8 +43%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $21 +$7 +32%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $46 −$46 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 +$2 +20%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $3 +$1 +36%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $29 −$29 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $7 $0 +6%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $6 +$3 +52%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 08 $4 −$4 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $5 +$1 +16%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 06 $2 $0 +13%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $3 +$1 +32%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $5 +$1 +12%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $5 +$3 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 96¢ $58 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 64¢ $39 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 84¢ $33 5h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 5h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 6h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $28 6h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $28 7h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $19 8h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England $2 8h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $38 10h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 95¢ $66 12h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $48 13h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 88¢ $4 24h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 81¢ $4 24h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $6 25h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under $0 25h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $4 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 25h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 69¢ $14 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 25h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $19 26h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 55¢ $11 26h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 26h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $17 27h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 49¢ $7 28h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 30¢ $9 28h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 77¢ $4 28h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $2 28h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $2 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 369 history records