Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:55:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87fe…f3b4 crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 556d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$270 (-15%) realized −$279 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$146
7 days−$151
14 days−$151
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$418
politics 37% +$1
other 10% −$9
tech 3% $0
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -7.3% -16.2% 38% 38% -50.2%
≤30d 13 -7.3% -16.2% 38% 38% -50.2%
≤90d 15 -13.0% -21.3% 40% 33% -49.1%
all 38 -14.3% -22.5% 47% 21% -32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 21% -32.4%
10% -29.9% 18% -38.8%
15% -36.7% 18% -44.7%
20% -42.9% 18% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$32 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

556d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$279
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage556d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Down 51¢ 69¢ $26 $35 +$9 (+36%)
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $36 −$35 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $36 −$35 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$50 +312%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$12 +230%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $57 −$55 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $46 −$45 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$19 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$20 +78%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: Chicken Coop Esports vs regain (BO3) - ESL Challenger Apr 30 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Apr 30 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 10 $65 −$64 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 10 $9 +$17 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jan 10 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jan 10 $60 −$10 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jan 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jan 10 $52 −$51 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jan 10 $50 −$49 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 10 $50 +$42 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jan 10 $50 +$43 +86%
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 10 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Nov 30 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on September 30? Nov 30 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 30 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? Oct 04 $16 −$2 -14%
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave qualify for the 2025 Grand Chess Tour Fina Sep 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win The Bronx in the New York City Mayoral Democrati Aug 20 $12 $0 +1%
Will Colombia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $41 −$3 -8%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic candidate win the NYC mayoral election? May 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Alberta in the next May 05 $28 $0 +1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 23 $594 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 16m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 17m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 24m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $39 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 28m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 28m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $17 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $26 32m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down $5 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 41m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 41m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.99 · official $51.49 · 114 history records