Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:53:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87fb…4955 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$40 (-25%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%22W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -11.8% -20.2% 33% 33% +33.8%
≤30d 42 -14.5% -22.6% 38% 38% +0.3%
≤90d 57 -13.9% -22.1% 39% 37% -16.0%
all 57 -13.9% -22.1% 39% 37% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 37% -16.0%
10% -29.5% 37% -24.0%
15% -36.4% 35% -31.4%
20% -42.6% 28% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses22 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 56
History coverage60d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$37 +350%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 28 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 28 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 28 $2 +$3 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 28 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 28 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 28 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 28 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 28 $7 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 28 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 27 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 27 $2 +$3 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 27 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 27 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 27 $1 +$4 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 27 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 27 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records