Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
87 0x87f8…aa04 sports 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$595 (-7%) realized −$555 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%27W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$3,490now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$638
7 days−$360
14 days−$396
30 days−$396
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$140
sports 31% −$296
economics 1% −$6
politics 0% −$23
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -3.5% -12.7% 45% 45% -16.3%
≤30d 60 -4.0% -13.1% 43% 43% -16.6%
≤90d 60 -4.0% -13.1% 43% 43% -16.6%
all 63 -5.4% -14.4% 43% 43% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 43% -17.0%
10% -22.6% 41% -24.9%
15% -30.1% 40% -32.2%
20% -36.9% 35% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$60 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$3,490
Realized−$555
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses27 / 36
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions6
Markets (closed)63 / 75
History coverage599d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $3,000 $2,970 −$30 (-1%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? Jun 27 $51 −$9 -17%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 England? Jun 27 $51 −$9 -17%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $50 +$220 +441%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $101 +$39 +38%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $102 +$98 +97%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,191 +$739 +62%
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $71 +$50 +70%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $71 +$37 +52%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 26 $41 −$27 -65%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $51 −$21 -41%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 26 $21 −$12 -60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $198 −$193 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $389 −$200 -51%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $90 −$88 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $360 −$353 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $680 −$680 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $20 +$19 +94%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $223 −$219 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 +$13 +65%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 −$11 -56%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$12 +60%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $222 +$72 +32%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $243 +$201 +83%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $3 +$9 +250%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$13 +65%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$11 +110%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $40 −$40 -99%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$38 +124%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$18 +46%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$10 +96%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $12 +$10 +79%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 +$11 +73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 +$24 +238%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY 15¢ $50 2m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $204 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $203 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? SELL Yes 7¢ $43 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 England? SELL Yes 7¢ $43 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 England? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 21¢ $100 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 34¢ $100 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $3,045 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY 18¢ $50 12h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 12h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 12h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $10 20h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $10 20h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 1¢ $8 20h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 2¢ $13 20h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 12¢ $28 20h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $10 21h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $20 21h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 1¢ $10 21h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $10 21h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $21 21h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 1¢ $10 21h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $10 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 21h
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $71 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,490.04 · official $3,734.51 · 129 history records