Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:14:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87f7…cb23 crypto 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (119 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,260 (-17%) realized −$2,232 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,052per market
Trades / day119.0pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,772now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$2,232
sports 13% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (119 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-46.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -40.7% -46.3% 25% 25% -27.0%
≤30d 12 -40.7% -46.3% 25% 25% -27.0%
≤90d 12 -40.7% -46.3% 25% 25% -27.0%
all 12 -40.7% -46.3% 25% 25% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover119.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.3% 25% -27.0%
10% -51.5% 25% -33.9%
15% ← realistic here -56.2% 25% -40.3%
20% -60.5% 25% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,599 vs −$781 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,772
Realized−$2,232
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,052
Trades / day119.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $1,800 $1,772 −$28 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 30 $1,975 +$2,355 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 30 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 30 $529 −$500 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 30 $2,222 −$1,514 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 30 $937 +$1,251 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 29 $1,563 −$1,500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 29 $734 −$700 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 29 $936 +$1,192 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 29 $1,460 −$1,400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 29 $844 −$800 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 29 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 29 $215 −$215 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,837 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $103 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $107 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,771.88 · official $1,771.88 (match) · 124 history records